Guar Seed & Guar Gum Price Outlook January 2026 | NCDEX, Rig Count & Export Analysis

Guar Seed & Guar Gum Market Outlook: Fundamentals, Rig Counts, Export Trends and January 2026 Price Forecast

Guar seed and guar gum prices continue to remain a key focus for traders, exporters and processors as market participants closely track NCDEX guar seed price, NCDEX guar gum price, global rig count trends and export demand from major consuming countries. The current guar market outlook reflects a balance between comfortable post-harvest supply and steady industrial demand, particularly from the oil and gas sector where guar gum remains a critical input for hydraulic fracturing. Movements in global drilling activity, reflected through weekly and annual rig count data, are directly influencing guar gum futures analysis and price forecasts for January. At the same time, India’s dominance in guar seed and guar gum exports is providing structural support to prices, even as short-term volatility persists in futures trading. With guar seed price today and guar gum price today consolidating on NCDEX, the broader guar seed and guar gum fundamentals suggest a range-bound to mildly positive trend in the near term, supported by export demand, industrial consumption and stable macroeconomic conditions.

As we enter January 2026, the guar seed price today and guar gum price today indicate a phase of consolidation across Indian markets. The broader guar seed market analysis and guar gum market outlook suggest that prices are neither witnessing sharp rallies nor facing aggressive corrections. Instead, the guar complex is moving within a well-defined range, supported by stable demand, steady exports, and balanced global industrial activity. This behaviour reflects a healthy equilibrium between supply-side comfort and demand-side resilience, both in the physical markets and on NCDEX.

Guar seed and guar gum continue to hold strategic importance for India’s agricultural export economy. With India dominating global supply, movements in NCDEX guar seed price and NCDEX guar gum price are influenced not only by domestic crop fundamentals but also by international demand trends, especially from the oil and gas industry, food processing sector, and global trade flows.

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Current Price Levels and NCDEX Trading Trends

In recent sessions, guar seed price trend in India has remained firm on NCDEX. Guar seed futures for the January 2026 contract are trading close to ₹6,050 per 100 kg, with February contracts following a similar trajectory. These levels reflect positive sentiment in guar seed NCDEX technical analysis, where prices are holding above key support levels.

The 52-week high for guar seed futures stands near ₹6,192 per 100 kg, suggesting that current prices are positioned in the upper half of the annual range. This reflects confidence among traders, exporters, and processors in the underlying guar seed supply demand analysis.

On the guar gum side, guar gum futures analysis shows futures trading around ₹11,700 per 100 kg. Daily price movement indicates strong support near ₹11,500 and resistance around ₹12,000. These levels reinforce the view that guar gum price prediction for January remains range-bound but firm, backed by industrial demand and export activity.

Guar Seed & Guar Gum Market Outlook: Fundamentals, Rig Counts, Export Trends and January 2026 Price Forecast

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Fundamental Drivers Behind Guar Price Movements

The movement in guar seed and guar gum prices is shaped by a combination of interconnected fundamentals, often referred to as guar seed and guar gum fundamentals.

Supply Side: Crop Output and Quality

The 2025 kharif guar crop continues to define supply conditions. Overall production is assessed as average to slightly above average, ensuring adequate arrivals in major mandis. This supply comfort limits excessive upside in prices. However, quality-related issues such as moisture variation, storage losses, and uneven grading are reducing the availability of premium quality stock. This has resulted in price premiums for better grades, offering downside protection to overall prices.

From a long-term perspective, fluctuations in acreage and yield remain a recurring theme in guar seed supply demand analysis, creating periodic tightness despite comfortable headline production numbers.

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Demand Side: Industrial and Consumption Drivers

Demand fundamentals remain supportive, particularly for guar gum. Guar gum industrial demand analysis highlights continued consumption from multiple sectors.

The most influential segment remains the guar gum demand oil and gas industry, where guar gum is used extensively in hydraulic fracturing and drilling fluids. While efficiency improvements have moderated per-rig consumption, absolute demand remains tied closely to drilling activity levels.

Beyond energy, guar gum demand from food processing, pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, and personal care industries continues to expand. Clean-label trends and plant-based formulations have reinforced long-term consumption patterns, providing stability to guar gum prices.

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Export Dynamics: Backbone of Price Stability

Exports remain a cornerstone of price support. Guar seed export data India and guar gum export market India show that India continues to supply nearly 80–90% of global guar requirements. Major destinations include the United States, European Union, China, Russia, and the Middle East.

During recent trade periods, export volumes of guar gum exceeded 417,000 metric tonnes annually, underlining India’s global dominance. Even when domestic demand remains steady, export off-take absorbs significant volumes, preventing sharp price declines and supporting guar seed price forecast January and guar gum price forecast January expectations.

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Global Rig Counts and Impact on Guar Gum Prices

A defining variable in guar gum pricing is global drilling activity. The global rig count impact on guar gum remains a critical indicator for market participants.

Recent data indicates that the global rotary rig count is around 1,780 rigs. While slightly lower than the previous month, it remains about 7% higher year-on-year. In the U.S., rig counts have stabilised near 410–415 rigs, showing modest weekly improvements.

This stability suggests that drilling activity is not contracting sharply. Historically, stable or rising rig counts translate into steady guar gum consumption. As a result, guar gum prices tend to hold firm even during periods of agricultural supply comfort.

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Rig Counts and NCDEX Price Bands for January

Linking rig trends with NCDEX futures provides clearer price expectations:

• If rig counts strengthen further, NCDEX guar gum price could test ₹11,500–₹11,800 per 100 kg.

• With stable rig activity, the most probable trading band remains ₹10,700–₹11,300.

• A sharp fall in rig activity could soften prices toward ₹10,200–₹10,600.

These ranges offer a practical framework for guar gum price prediction in January.

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Cost Structure and Macro Factors

Processing, warehousing, and inventory holding costs continue to act as a price floor. Additionally, any depreciation in the Indian rupee improves export realisations, indirectly supporting domestic prices. These factors help explain why guar prices rarely collapse even during bearish sentiment.

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Ten-Year Historical Perspective

Over the past decade, guar markets have witnessed extreme cycles. Prices surged during the U.S. shale boom, corrected sharply during the pandemic, and rebounded strongly post-2021. Over the last 52 weeks, guar gum futures have traded between ₹8,200 and ₹11,960 per 100 kg, highlighting both volatility and resilience.

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January 2026 Price Outlook

Based on current fundamentals:

• Guar Seed: Expected to trade between ₹5,500 and ₹6,100 per 100 kg.

• Guar Gum: Expected range ₹10,300 to ₹11,500 per 100 kg.

These projections align with current guar seed price today, guar gum price today, and futures behaviour on NCDEX.

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Conclusion

The guar market entering January 2026 reflects consolidation with a positive bias. Stable export demand, balanced supply, firm industrial usage, and steady global rig counts are collectively shaping guar seed and guar gum news India. While short-term volatility remains possible, the broader structure points toward stability rather than sharp corrections, offering clarity and confidence to farmers, traders, exporters, and industrial buyers alike.

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Guar Gum Export Performance of Last Five Years 2020-2025 and  Impact of Geopolitical Incidents on Guar Prices

Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska and Guar Prices

Global politics often influence commodity prices indirectly. The recent Trump–Putin summit in Alaska created ripples in the energy market, with discussions around energy security, oil supplies, and trade partnerships. Since guar gum is heavily tied to oil drilling activity, any political move that affects oil demand or supply impacts guar gum prices. Analysts observed heightened speculation in guar futures following the summit, indicating how sensitive guar is to geopolitics.

Energy Demand and Crude Oil Prices

The single most important driver of guar gum prices is crude oil. When crude oil prices rise, oil companies expand drilling operations, increasing the demand for guar gum as a drilling additive. Conversely, when oil prices fall, guar gum demand weakens. With the global shift toward renewable energy but continued reliance on oil in the short term, guar gum faces both opportunities and risks.

India–Pakistan Conflict

The India–Pakistan conflict also indirectly affects guar. Both nations are major players in agriculture and trade routes. Any escalation leads to supply chain disruptions, higher insurance costs for exporters, and speculative jumps in guar gum market prices. Traders closely monitor border tensions, as even rumors can swing guar futures in the Indian commodity exchanges.

Guar Gum Export Performance of Last Five Years 2020-2025 and  Impact of Geopolitical Incidents on Guar Prices

Global Animal Feed Demand and Guar Korma

One of the emerging fundamentals supporting guar is the animal feed market. Guar by-products like guar korma and guar churi are rich in protein, making them an excellent replacement for expensive soymeal and corn in cattle, poultry, and fish feed formulations.

• Global fish feed demand has surged with the expansion of aquaculture in Asia.

• Guar korma offers 50–55% protein content, making it a sustainable and cost-effective choice.

• With rising feed costs, guar-based feeds are becoming globally competitive, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia.

This diversification of guar applications beyond oil drilling ensures a stable future for the guar gum industry.

Sowing of Guar in India (2024–25)

Guar is mainly sown during the Kharif season (July–August) in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. According to the latest sowing data (2024–25):

• Rajasthan remains the largest contributor, accounting for nearly 80% of India’s guar acreage.

• As of August 2024, sowing was reported at approximately 31.5 lakh hectares, slightly higher than last year.

• Favorable monsoon rainfall in western Rajasthan is expected to support healthy crop yields.

This increase in acreage strengthens India’s role as the leading guar gum supplier globally.

Guar Gum Export Performance (Last Five Years)

India dominates the global guar gum export market, controlling over 80% of trade share. Let’s analyze year-wise export data (APEDA/DGCIS):

Financial Year	Export Quantity (MT)	Export Value (USD Million)
2019–20	381,880	456.91
2020–21	235,000	263.0
2021–22	321,000	447.0
2022–23	406,531	617.0
2023–24 2024–25	417,674        453,612	541.6         568.9

Guar Gum Export Performance ( Last Five Years 2020-2025 )

Guar Gum Export Market Insights

Major Buyers: United States, Germany, Russia, Spain, Mexico, China. The U.S. is historically the largest importer, but demand fluctuates due to energy sector cycles and logistic changes.

Sector Drivers: Oil & gas (fracking), food processing, pharmaceuticals, and now expanding textile, cosmetic, and aquaculture markets are powering growth.

2025 Export Boom: Post-pandemic rebound and rising industrial consumption have pushed exports to new highs, with particularly strong energy and pharmaceutical demand.

Price & Demand Factors

Energy sector demand (hydraulic fracturing) remains the top influence on guar gum export volumes and prices, especially with global oil price volatility.

Geopolitical shifts (India-Pakistan tensions, supply chain rerouting, currency changes) create short-term disruption but also new opportunities for exporters.

Diversification: India’s exporters benefit from market agility. When export routes or single-country demand drops, quick shifts to new buyers—like China, Germany, and the Middle East—stabilize overall export growth.

Industrial & Agricultural Impact

Government support and new export incentives have helped Indian suppliers sustain growth even during global downturns.

Climate risk:

India’s production is weather dependent, with monsoons governing crop output and price swings.

Food industry: 

Rapid adoption of guar gum in functional foods, gluten-free products, and alternative proteins is raising export value and limiting downside risk.

Future Outlook

2025–26 is projected for another record-breaking export year. Heavy sowing, strong global demand, and innovation are driving optimism. Climate, currency, and global oil prices remain watchpoints for the year ahead.

Long-term prospects are robust, with guar gum’s applications increasing across diverse global sectors, and India set to remain the leading export hub for years to come.

India’s guar gum export story is not just about numbers—it’s about agility, innovation, and riding the waves of global change.

Outlook: The Future of Guar

The future of guar gum will be shaped by both geopolitical factors and agricultural fundamentals:

1. Energy Markets: As long as oil drilling remains significant, guar will continue to be in high demand.

2. Animal Feed Sector: Rising global demand for protein-based feed will ensure guar korma’s growth.

3. Geopolitical Stability: Events like the Trump–Putin summit, India–Pakistan tensions, and Middle East energy shifts will directly influence guar gum prices.

4. Sustainability: Guar’s drought resistance and versatility make it a strategic crop for India.

Conclusion

Guar is not just an agricultural product; it is a strategic commodity linked to energy, food security, and global trade. With increasing diversification into animal feed and industrial applications, the guar gum industry has a strong future despite uncertainties in geopolitics and energy transitions.

India’s dominance in guar gum production and exports ensures that the crop will remain central to both farmer livelihoods and global industries. For traders, exporters, and investors, closely tracking crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, and agricultural sowing trends will be key to anticipating guar gum market movements.

Guar Gum Export and U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Exemption: Impact on Indian Guar Gum Exports and Market Trends

Guar Gum is a versatile natural thickener and stabilizer widely used in industries such as oil & gas, food processing, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing. India is the leading global producer of Indian Guar Gum, primarily cultivated in Rajasthan, making it a dominant player in the global Guar Gum market.

Impact on Indian Guar Gum Exports and Market Trends

In 2025, the United States implemented a reciprocal tariff schedule targeting imports to address trade imbalances. While Guar Gum export to USA traditionally enjoyed zero ordinary duty, this new policy may impose additional surcharges unless Guar Gum is explicitly exempt under the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) exclusion list. This creates uncertainty for Indian exporters who supply a significant portion of U.S. Guar Gum demand.

The importance of Guar Gum for the USA cannot be overstated. It is a critical component in hydraulic fracturing fluids used in the oil and gas industry, a natural stabilizer and thickener in the food and personal care sectors, and a binder in pharmaceuticals. Therefore, fluctuations in Guar Gum import costs directly affect multiple U.S. industries.

Guar Gum Export and U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Exemption: Impact on Indian Guar Gum Exports and Market Trends

Indian Guar Gum benefits from large-scale cultivation, cost-effective processing, and a wide product portfolio, including natural and chemically modified guar derivatives. These advantages have solidified India’s leadership in the Guar Gum industry India and globally.

However, the 2025 reciprocal tariff program could impose additional costs on Indian exporters unless Guar Gum remains exempt. This would reduce profit margins and potentially shift U.S. buyers toward alternative sources. On the other hand, exemption status would reinforce India's stronghold in the U.S. market.

Current price trend on Guar and Guar Gum

Looking at pricing trends, NCDEX Guar Gum futures for August 2025 trade near ₹9,712 per quintal, with September futures slightly higher at ₹9,860. Meanwhile, the Jodhpur Guar Gum spot price stands around ₹5,254 per quintal, showing minor daily variations. These prices reflect ongoing supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical trade factors impacting the Guar Gum price globally.

To stay competitive, Indian exporters and U.S. importers must closely monitor CBP’s exclusion lists, ensure accurate customs classification, and keep track of NCDEX Guar Gum futures and Jodhpur Guar Gum spot prices. Contractual strategies incorporating tariff risk clauses and focusing on higher-value guar products can also mitigate market volatility.

Guar Gum Export and U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Exemption:

Guar Gum and Its vital role in the global economy

In conclusion, Guar Gum uses across multiple sectors ensure its vital role in the global economy. Despite potential challenges from new U.S. tariffs, the Indian Guar Gum industry is well-positioned to maintain its global dominance by leveraging its production scale, quality, and adaptability to market demands.

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Impact of Union Budget 2025 on the Indian Guar Gum Industry

The Indian guar gum industry, a significant player in the global market, is poised to experience both direct and indirect impacts from the Union Budget 2025 presented by the Finance Minister. This article delves into the potential effects of the budget on various stakeholders within the guar gum ecosystem, from farmers to exporters, while also highlighting relevant schemes and potential areas for growth.

Overview of the Guar Gum Industry

India is the world's leading producer and exporter of guar gum, a natural hydrocolloid extracted from guar seeds. Guar gum finds extensive applications in diverse industries, including food processing, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. The industry is characterized by a complex value chain involving farmers, traders, processors, and exporters.  

Impact of Union Budget 2025 on the Indian Guar Gum Industry

Key Budget Proposals and Their Impact

While the budget may not have specific announcements directly targeting the guar gum industry, several proposals can have significant indirect implications:

• Focus on Agriculture and Rural Development: 

The budget's emphasis on boosting agricultural productivity, rural infrastructure, and farmer income can positively impact guar seed production. Initiatives like the "Dhan Dhanya Krishi Yojna" aimed at improving farm productivity in specific districts can potentially include guargrowing re gions. Increased rural incomes can also lead to higher consumption, indirectly benefiting the food processing sector, a major consumer of guar gum.   

• Support for MSMEs: 

The budget's focus on strengthening Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) through credit access, technology upgrades, and reduced compliance burden is crucial for the guar gum processing sector. Many guar gum processing units fall under the MSME category, and these measures can enhance their competitiveness and efficiency.   

• Export Promotion Measures: 

Any initiatives aimed at simplifying export procedures, reducing transaction costs, and providing export incentives can boost guar gum exports. The budget's focus on promoting "Make in India" and enhancing global competitiveness can indirectly benefit the guar gum industry, as it is a  significant export commodity.   

• Infrastructure Development: 

Investments in infrastructure, including transportation and logistics, can improve the efficiency of the guar gum supply chain. Better connectivity can reduce transportation costs for both raw materials (guar seeds) and finished products (guar gum), benefiting all stakeholders.

Impact on Key Stakeholders

• Farmers: 

Increased focus on agricultural productivity, soil health, and irrigation can encourage farmers to cultivate guar. Support for mechanization and access to quality seeds can improve yields and income for guar farmers. However, price volatility and market fluctuations remain concerns that need to be addressed.   

• Traders: 

Improved infrastructure and market linkages can facilitate smoother trading of guar seeds. Initiatives promoting digital platforms and market information systems can enable traders to access wider markets and make informed decisions.

• Processors: 

MSME-focused schemes and easier access to credit can help guar gum processing units modernize their operations, adopt better technologies, and enhance quality. This can lead to increased value addition and improved competitiveness in the global market.

• Exporters: 

Measures aimed at simplifying export procedures, reducing transaction costs, and providing export incentives can boost guar gum exports. This can help the industry capitalize on the growing global demand for guar gum in various applications.   

Schemes Relevant to the Guar Gum Industry

• Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): 

This crop insurance scheme can provide financial security to guar farmers against crop losses due to natural calamities and other unforeseen events.   

• National Agricultural Market (eNAM): 

This online platform can help guar farmers and traders access wider markets and get better prices for their produce.   

• Micro and Small Enterprises - Cluster Development Programme (MSE-CDP): 

This scheme can support the development of guar gum processing clusters by providing assistance for infrastructure development, technology upgrades, and marketing initiatives.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the positive impacts of the budget, the guar gum industry faces certain challenges:

• Price Volatility: 

Fluctuations in guar seed and guar gum prices can affect the income of farmers and the profitability of processors.   

• Dependence on Monsoon: 

Guar cultivation is largely dependent on monsoon rains, making the industry vulnerable to weather-related risks.   

• Competition from Substitutes: 

The availability of cheaper substitutes for guar gum in certain applications can pose a threat to the industry's growth.   

Conclusion

The Union Budget 2025, with its focus on agriculture, MSMEs, and export promotion, can have a positive impact on the Indian guar gum industry. By leveraging the budget's initiatives and addressing the existing challenges, the industry can unlock its full potential and contribute to the growth of the Indian economy. Continued government support through targeted schemes, research and development, and market interventions will be crucial for the long-term sustainability and competitiveness of the guar gum industry.

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